Article Posted on : - Oct 31, 2008

China Airlines 747-409 LN: 409 B-18275 at Hong Kong International Airport. Credit: Creative Commons.

HONG KONG (BNS): China will require 3,710 new commercial airplanes worth 390 billion dollars over the next 20 years, while retaining its position as the world's fastest growing aviation market.

The projection by the Boeing company has come at a time when the aviation sector is fighting for its survival amidst the global economic downturn and an overall reversal of fortunes in aviation sector fuelled by the hike in oil prices and a host of other factors. The forecast should boost the morale of aircraft manufacturers who are desperately looking for new buyers.

"China will continue to be the fastest growing aviation centre in the world, requiring 41 percent of the entire Asia-Pacific region airplane demand. This makes China the largest market outside the US for new commercial airplanes," said Boeing's commercial airplanes vice president, marketing, Randy Tinseth.

The leading aircraft manufacturer has estimated that air travel and cargo market growth would ensure that airlines in China would triple their fleet to 4560 aircraft by 2027, about the same number of planes operating in Europe today.

In mid-October, a senior Boeing official had said in Hyderabad that there would be a global requirement of 29,400 new aircraft, valued at over 3.2 trillion dollars, over the next decades—12,500 to replace existing ones and 16,900 new planes.
A major amount of projected China’s requirement would be single-aisle medium sized jets accounting for around 70 percent.

This is essentially because of a growing domestic flying market. The single aisle jets of the 737 class are best suited for medium haul destinations. Boeing hopes to sell at least 2600 of its 737 NGs (Next Generation).

In the intermediate twin-aisles segment, Boeing would sell 780 of its 787 Dreamliner and 777 twin-aisle aircraft. Combined demand for single and twin aisle aircraft would dominate 91 per cent of the market, according to the assessment.

In the jumbo sized category, the demand would not be much. Boeing hopes to sell around 100 of its 747 class aircrafts.
The cargo business provides further impetus to the market. The Chinese carriers are expected to add 370 transport planes by 2027, a quadrupled growth.

The company said its forecast is based on the existing market environment with a long term view about the growth of the sector in the next two decades.